Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,SJTU,Project Evaluation,-The 5,th,Lecture,Dr.Hu Hao,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Project Evaluation,1,Agenda,Review,(10),S1:Case study 1 Economic analysis of an industrial project,(30),Project Social Evaluation,(20),1,st,Break,(2:00-2:10 pm),S2:Case study 2 Social Evaluation of a paper factory,(10),National Economical Evaluation,(50),2,nd,Break,(3:10-3:20pm),S3:Case study 3 A Highway Project,(15),Value Engineering,(30),AgendaReview(10),2,Economical Evaluation,National Economical Evaluation,Social Evaluation,Project Evaluation,+,+,Economical Evaluation,3,Session 1,Case study 1,Economic analysis of an industrial project,Session 1Case study 1,4,Several Economical Indicators,资产负债率=负债总计/资产总计,流动比率=流动资产总额/流动负债总额,速动比率,=（流动资产总额-存货）/流动负债总额,Several Economical Indicators资,5,Four Objectives of the Macro economy,充分就业,物价稳定,经济增长,国际收支平衡,Four Objectives of the Macro e,6,社会综合评价,根据国家的基本目标，在项目选择上把效益目标、公平目标、环境目标和其他影响社会发展的因素通盘考虑，对项目进行多因素、多目标的综合分析评价，从而选出并实施那些有助于实现国家最终目标的项目,.,社会综合评价根据国家的基本目标，在项目选择上把效益目标、公平,7,项目社会综合评价系统的构成,Hall,三维结构法,逻辑维与项目评价,明确评价目的、范围、费用、效益、预测社会经济情况,时间维和项目评价,历史的综合描述，现状的系统分析和对未来的科学预测,专业维和项目评价,项目评价与各专业技术有着密切联系,项目社会综合评价系统的构成Hall 三维结构法,8,项目社会综合评价一般工作程序,确定目标,确定评价范围,确定评价指标和标准,确定指标的权重,确定社会评价判据,社会综合评价,项目社会综合评价一般工作程序确定目标,9,项目社会模糊综合评价法,评价方法,确定评价因素集,U,确定评语集,V,建立评价因素集,U,与评语集,V,之间的模糊关系的单因素评价矩阵,R,评价因素,U,i,对评语集内元素,V,j,的隶属度为,R,ij,确定权重,A,模糊综合评价,B=A*R,模糊综合评价指标的处理,项目社会模糊综合评价法评价方法,10,案例分析,某纸浆厂项目社会综合评价,案例分析某纸浆厂项目社会综合评价,11,Session 2,Evaluation Projects with the Benefit/Cost Ratio Method,项目的费用-效益评估,Session 2Evaluation Projects w,12,Economical,National Economical and Social Evaluations,Project Evaluation,Economical Evaluation,National Economical Evaluation,Social Evaluation,财务评价,项目的盈利能力、清偿能力以及外汇平衡等财务状况,判定项目的财务可行性,Economical,National Economica,13,Economical,National Economical and Social Evaluations,国民经济评价,按照资源合理配置的原则，从国家整体角度考察项目的效益和费用，通过计算项目对国民经济的净贡献，评价项目的经济合理性。,社会评价,重大工程项目和公共事业项目还需考虑其他社会政治目标，如地区或阶层间的利益分配、就业、环境改进和社会安定等。,费用-效益分析,是进行国民经济和社会评价的有效办法之一,Economical,National Economica,14,财务评价与国民经济评价的区别-三个例子,例一：节能水泵,例二：化工溶剂厂,例三：新建城市道路,财务评价与国民经济评价的区别-三个例子例一：节能水泵,15,财务评价与国民经济评价的区别,价格“失真”,存在外部效果,没有在项目的财务收益或支出中包括进去的那些效益和费用,存在不可计量的效果,财务评价与国民经济评价的区别价格“失真”,16,影子价格,价格失真,影子价格,影子工资,影子汇率,统一的社会折现率,影子价格,影子价格是从国家角度出发，更能反映资源价值的合理价格,影子价格价格失真,17,外部效果,项目的产出或投入并未全部地计入工程项目的收益或支出中去，通常这类效益或费用统称为外部效果。,外部效果的几种情况,由“价格失真”造成的外部效果,由于价格的合理升降造成的外部效果,技术性外部效果,相邻部门效果,外部效果项目的产出或投入并未全部地计入工程项目的收益或支出中,18,无形效果,无形效果难以用货币进行度量的效益和费用,处理方法,首先计算实物指标,设法估计各种实物指标的货币价值,如：,对消费者进行询问,参照公共设施以外类似物品的市场价格,用公共工程的费用来反映效益,无形效果无形效果难以用货币进行度量的效益和费用,19,公共项目方案评选,案例：某高速公路项目,公共项目方案评选案例：某高速公路项目,20,Difficulties Inherent in Project Evaluation of Public Works,There is no profit standard to be used as a measure of financial effectiveness.,There is no easy-to-quantify money measures of many of the benefits provided by a public project.,There frequently is little or no direct connection between the project and the public,who are the owners,Whenever public funds are used,there is likely to be political influence,Difficulties Inherent in Proje,21,Difficulties Inherent in Project Evaluation of Public Works(2),The usual profit motive as a stimulus to effective operation is absent,Public works usually are more circumscribed by legal restrictions than private companies,The correct interest rate to be sued for discounting benefits and costs of public projects is often controversial and politically sensitive.,Difficulties Inherent in Proje,22,The B/C Ratio Method,The B/C Ratio,Is defined as the ratio of the equivalent worth of benefits to the equivalent worth of costs,The equivalent worth utilized is customarily AW or PW,or FW,The interest rate used for public projects,Private sector:the rate leads to the profit maximization or cost minimization,Public sector:the rate should lead to a maximization of social benefits,The B/C Ratio MethodThe B/C Ra,23,Calculation of B/C Ratio,1.Conventional B/C Ratio,B/C=AW(benefits of the proposed project)/AW(total costs of the proposed project),=,B,/(CR+O&M),2.Modified B/C Ratio,B/C=(,B,-O&M)/CR,B,is annual worth of benefits of the proposed project,CR is capital recovery cost,O&M is equivalent annual operating and maintenance expense,Calculation of B/C Ratio1.Con,24,Calculation of B/C Ratio,1.Conventional B/C Ratio,B/C=PW(benefits of the proposed project)/PW(total costs of the proposed project),=,PW(B)/I+PW(O&M),2.Modified B/C Ratio,B/C=PW(B)-PW(O&M)/I,A project is acceptable if B/C ratios are,greater than or equal to,1.0,Calculation of B/C Ratio1.Con,25,Evaluating Independent Projects by B/C Ratios,In general,independent projects are deemed worthwhile investments if their B/C ratios are=1.0,Certain types of items(e.g.,salvage value)can be looked as added benefits rather than as reduced costs,pp.512-513 Example 14-1,Evaluating Independent Project,26,Comparis