Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,2-,*,Chapter 2Decision-Making Systems,Models,and Support,Turban,Aronson,and Liang Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,Seventh Edition,1,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Learning Objectives,Learn the basic concepts of decision making.,Understand systems approach.,Learn Simons four phases of decision making.,Understand the concepts of rationality and bounded rationality.,Differentiate betwixt making a choice and establishing a principle of choice.,Learn which factors affect decision making.,Learn how DSS supports decision making in practice.,2,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Standard Motor Products Shifts Gears Into Team-Based Decision-Making Vignette,Team-based decision making,Increased information sharing,Daily feedback,Self-empowerment,Shifting responsibility towards teams,Elimination of middle management,3,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Decision Making,Process of choosing amongst alternative courses of action for the purpose of attaining a goal or goals.,The four phases of the decision process are:,Intelligence,Design,Choice,implementation,4,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Systems,Structure,Inputs,Processes,Outputs,Feedback from output to decision maker,Separated from environment by boundary,Surrounded by environment,Input,Processes,Output,boundary,Environment,5,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,6,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,System Types,Closed system,Independent,Takes no inputs,Delivers no outputs to the environment,Black Box,Open system,Accepts inputs,Delivers outputs to environment,7,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Models Used for DSS,Iconic,Small physical replication of system,Analog,Behavioral representation of system,May not look like system,Quantitative(mathematical),Demonstrates relationships between systems,8,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,9,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Phases of Decision-Making,Simons original three phases:,Intelligence,Design,Choice,He added fourth phase later:,Implementation,Book adds fifth stage:,Monitoring,10,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Decision-Making Intelligence Phase,Scan the environment,Analyze organizational goals,Collect data,Identify problem,Categorize problem,Programmed and non-programmed,Decomposed into smaller parts,Assess ownership and responsibility for problem resolution,11,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Decision-Making Design Phase,Develop alternative courses of action,Analyze potential solutions,Create model,Test for feasibility,Validate results,Select a principle of choice,Establish objectives,Incorporate into models,Risk assessment and acceptance,Criteria and constraints,12,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Decision-Making Choice Phase,Principle of choice,Describes acceptability of a solution approach,Normative Models,Optimization,Effect of each alternative,Rationalization,More of good things,less of bad things,Courses of action are known quantity,Options ranked from best to worse,Suboptimization,Decisions made in separate parts of organization without consideration of whole,13,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Descriptive Models,Describe how things are believed to be,Typically,mathematically based,Applies single set of alternatives,Examples:,Simulations,What-if scenarios,Cognitive map,Narratives,14,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Developing Alternatives,Generation of alternatives,May be automatic or manual,May be legion,leading to information overload,Scenarios,Evaluate with heuristics,Outcome measured by goal attainment,15,2005 Prentice Hall,Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems,7th Edition,Turban,Aronson,and Liang,Problems,Satisficing is the willingness to settle for less than ideal.,Form of suboptimization,Bounded rationality,Limited human capacity,Limited by individual differences and biases,Too many ch