,长城汽,车,练内功困境,反转,，,三周,期,夯,实,未,来,长城汽车系列深度：复盘与展望,长城汽车练内功困境反转，三周期夯实未来,1,AGEN,D,A,目录,一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分,化,周期和科技视角,二、历史,：,SUV,受益者，皮卡赢家，品牌突围遇波折，行业下行经营承压,三、现在：困境强反转，新车,型,+,新技术,+,新管理三重周期向上,四、未来：周期或科技？周期,看,WEY+,出口,+,新车迭代，科技看沙,龙,+,智能,+,服务,五、建议,六、风险提示,4,AGENDA目录一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分化周期和科技视,2,5,一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分,化,周期和科技视角,-,2,0%,0%,20%,40%,60%,80%,10,0,%,0,500,10,0,0,15,0,0,20,0,0,25,0,0,20,0,5,20,0,6,20,0,7,20,0,8,20,0,9,20,1,0,20,1,1,20,1,2,20,1,3,20,1,4,20,1,5,20,1,6,20,1,7,20,1,8,20,1,9,20,2,0,乘用车销量(万辆),SU,V销量(万辆),乘用车销量y,o,y,SU,V销量y,o,y,长城,(11-13),长安,(12-14),吉利,+,上汽(16,-,1,7,),广汽,(15H2-17),2008-2011,年乘,用,车第,一,轮周期 金融危机,+,四万亿刺激,+,欧,债危,机,引,发波动,2012,-,201,5,年第,二,轮,经济复苏后回落，带 动汽车消费先升后降,2016-2019,年第,三,轮,购置税减免政策驱动提,升,，之,后,由于,透支,+,经济回落+中美贸,易,战回落,传统乘用车投资逻辑为周期股视角,乘用车是周,期,行,业,(,销量,周,期,),，,传,统,视,角下,乘,用车,股,票,是,周期,股,(,销,量,的,指针,效,应,),11-19,年主要,有,5,轮,典型,的,整,车,周期,，,均是,行,业,复,苏,(,总,量,复,苏,+SUV,渗,透,率提,升,)+,强,车,型,周,期,(,多为,SUV,爆款,),推动,5,轮,周,期,：,分,别,为,11-13,年,的,长,城,，,12-14,年长安,，,15-17,广汽,，,16-17,年,的,吉,利,+,上汽,图：乘,用车销量周期简,介,(,单位，万辆,),5一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分化周期和科技视角-20%0%,3,6,一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分,化,周期和科技视角,长,城,汽车,长,安,汽车,吉,利汽车,(H,股,),广,汽集团,(H,股,),上,汽,集团,周,期,时间,时,间,跨度,2011-2013,2012-2014,2016-2017,2015-2017,2016-2017,涨幅,最,高,区,间,涨幅,+409%,+366%,+963%,+353%,+116%,乘,用,车,销,量,同,比,+5%/+7%/+16%,+7%,/,+16%,/,+10%,+15%/+2%,+7%/+15%/+2%,+15%/+2%,行,业,景气,SUV,销量,同比,+23%/+24%/+50%,+24%,/,+50%,/,+37%,+44%/+15%,+52%/+44%/+15%,+44%/+15%,自主销量,(,万辆,),49/63/75,-,77/125,19/38/51,19/34/55,自,主,销,量,同比,+8%/46%/21%,-,+47%/63%,+61%,/,101%,/,35%,+1%/83%/63%,公,司,销量,合资销量,(,万辆,),-,长福,:42/68/80,-,广丰,:,34,/,42,/,44,广本,:,59,/,65,/,72,大众,:,181,/,200,/,206,通用,:,173,/,188,/,200,合,资,销,量,同比,-,长福,:+31%/62%/18%,-,广丰,:+8%/5%/5%,大众,:5%/11%/3%,广本,:,+18,%,/,10,%,/,1,1%,通用,:0%/9%/+6%,归母净利,(,亿元,)34,/,57,/,82,15/35/76,51/106,42/63/108,320/344,公,司,业绩,归,母,净,利,润,增,速,+27%/+66%/+45%,+49%/142%/125%,+126%/+108%,+33%/+49%/+72%,+7%/+8%,公,司,估值,最大股价涨幅,时,的,P,E,-,+153%,-20%,+167%,+74%,+75%,公,司,新车,自,主,品牌 新,车,周期,11,年,:,哈弗,H,6,爆款,、,CR20,、,CR50,-,15,年：博瑞,16,年,：博,越,爆,款,、,帝,豪,GL,17,年：,远景,X,1,、远景,X,3,、远景,S1,、领克,01,15,年,:GS4,爆款,豪,GS,、,远景,SUV,、帝,16,年,:GA8,、,GS8,、,15,年,:,荣威,360,16,年,:RX5,爆款,17,年,:GS7,、,GE3,、,GS3,17,年,:i6,、,MG-ZS,、,RX3,、,MG6,合,资,品牌 新,车,周期,-,12,年,:,福,克斯,13,年,:,翼虎、,翼,博,、蒙,迪,欧,换代,-,广丰,:15,年汉兰,达,换代,大众,:,辉昂,/,途昂,/,科迪亚,广本,:16,年讴歌,CDX,、,通用,:,科,沃,兹,、,探,界,者、冠道阅朗、,GL6,tt,m,变化,传统乘用车投资逻辑为周期股视角,股价高弹,性,(,高,经,营,杠,杆,带来,高,弹,性,+ROE,反转,带,动,估值,提,升，,实,现,双,击,),业绩经验：,均,有,强车,型,周,期,支撑,，,以爆,款,SUV,居,多,(H6/,翼虎、翼,博,/,博,越,、,远,景,/GS4/RX5,),估值经验：,更,愿,意给,自,主,造,车能,力,提升,更,高,的,溢,价,(,吉利,，,长,城，,广,汽，,上汽,),表：历,史,5,轮乘用车周期对比,6一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分化周期和科技视角长城汽车长安,4,7,一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分,化,周期和科技视角,传统乘用车投资逻辑为周期股视角,11-13,年长城为,例：,股,价受,销,量,+,业,绩双,重,驱,动,，销,量,是业,绩,的,领,先指,针,(,行,业,销,量、,公,司销,量,、,公,司业,绩,的共,振,),7一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分化周期和科技视角传统乘用车投,5,1.2,特斯拉,&,智能化发展重塑商业模式使主机厂获得科技溢价,8,资,料,来,源,：,特,斯,拉,、,兴业,证,券,经,济,与,金,融,研,究,院整,理,一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分,化,周期和科技视角,特斯拉 业务,硬件,软件,后端服务,能源业务,太,阳,能,储,能业,务,Model,3/Y/,Model,S/X,FS,D,付费,软件商城,订,阅服,务,Robotaxi,特斯拉,革命,了,乘,用车,的,商,业,模,式,，,由单,纯,制,造,业,向,制,造,+,软,件,服,务,转型,（,硬件,+,软,件,+,共,享出,行,）,软件服务包,括,：,FSD,自动,驾,驶,功,能包,升级,(1,万,美,金,),，,功,能,性软,件,付费,激,活,(,硬件,冗,余,+OTA),，,车载,娱,乐,的,订,阅软,件,（,游,戏,、音,乐,等,），,通,过软,件,不,断,增,强,用户,体,验,，,为,用,户提,供,服,务,价,值,图：特斯拉的业务结构,图：特,斯拉制,造,+,服务的商业模式正反馈闭环,更多保有,量,更多驾驶,员,销量提,升,更好驾驶体,验,软件收入提,升,&,更多销,量,规模效应提,升,学习曲线加,速,数据量提,升,加速软件迭,代,服务领,先,制造成本与软件,边,际成本继续降,低,降价空间充,足,更,多,投,入,保,险业,务,充,电业,务,1.2 特斯拉&智能化发展重塑商业模式使主机厂获得科技溢价8,6,72%,82%,81%,83%,9%,4%,4%,4%,9%,7%,6%,6%,8%,7%,9%,8%,8,0%,6,0,%,4,0,%,2,0,%,0%,1,0,0,%,20172018,汽车销,售,汽车租,赁,储能,20192020Q1-Q3,服务及其他收入,85,176,200,172,11,9,9,16,15,1,8,2,1,1,0,1,14,22,16,2,50,2,00,1,50,1,00,50,0,2018,汽车租赁,20192020Q1-Q3,储能服务及其他收入,9,一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分,化,周期和科技视角,2017,汽车销售,图：特斯拉收入结构,序 号,公司,20,年销量,(,万辆,),市值（亿元）,单车市,值,(,万元,),1,特斯拉,公,司,49.96,51863,1038.19,2,丰田汽车,1074.21,13365,12.44,3,大众汽车,930.54,7032,7.56,4,比亚,迪,42.70,6627,155.21,5,蔚来,（稀,释,前）,4.37,6257,1430.83,6,小鹏,2.70,5702,2108.82,7,通用汽车,774.47,5123,6.61,8,戴姆勒,汽,车,334.00,4969,14.88,9,理想,3.26,3995,1224.44,10,长城,汽车,111.16,3613,32.50,11,宝马汽车,232.48,3374,14.51,12,本田,482.62,3229,6.69,13,现代汽车,635.09,3226,5.08,14,福特汽车,490.12,2909,5.94,15,上汽,集团,560.05,2758,4.92,16,吉利,汽车,132.02,2619,19.84,17,恒大,汽车,-,2198,-,注：,表示中国企业,；,戴姆,勒,、丰,田,、通,用,、本,田,销量,取,2019,年,特斯拉,&,智能化发展重塑商业模式使主机厂获得科技溢价,当前特斯,拉,软,件,服务,收,入,占,比,约,10%,，,但,特斯,拉,(,销,量,50,万台,),市值,为,丰,田汽,车,(,销,量,1000,万,台,),的,3.9,倍,造,车新,势,力,凭,借,高,端电,动,智,能,车,的,定位,，,较,为,领,先,的智,能,驾,驶,及,智,能座,舱,，,享,受,了,商业,模,式,切,换,的,估值,红,利,图：特,斯拉分业务收,入,(,单位：亿美元,),表：部,分汽车企业市值排,名,(,截至,2021,年,1,月,22,日,),72%82%81%83%9%4%4%4%9%7%6%6%8%,7,AGEN,D,A,目录,一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分,化,周期和科技视角,二、历史,：,SUV,受益者，皮卡赢家，品牌突围遇波折，行业下行经营承压,三、现在：困境强反转，新车,型,+,新技术,+,新管理三重周期向上,四、未来：周期或科技？周期,看,WEY+,出口,+,新车迭代，科技看沙,龙,+,智能,+,服务,五、投资建议,六、风险提示,10,AGENDA目录一、前言：乘用车投资逻辑分化周期和科技视,8,11,二、历史,：,SUV,受益者，皮卡赢家，品牌突围遇波折，行业下行经营承压,长城产品矩阵,&,股权结构简介,汽车制造商,，,主,要产,品,为,SUV+,皮,卡,+,电动,小,车,，,沙,龙,(,100%,股,权,),和,光,束,(,50%,股权,),是尚,未,量,产的,电,动车,品,牌,2020,年销量,：,哈弗,(75.0,万辆，同比,-2.5%),；,WEY,(7.9,万辆，同,比,-21.5%),；欧,拉,(5.6,万辆，,同,比,+44.8%),；,皮卡,(22.5,万,辆,，,同,比,+51.2%),；,长城汽车,(601633),整车业务,(,营业收入占比,90.7%),风骏,5,风骏,7,炮,-,乘,用皮卡,炮,-,商,用皮卡,炮,-,越,野皮卡,好猫,iQ,白猫,黑猫,坦克,3,0,0,VV5,VV6,VV,7,科,技版,VV7,PHEV,