Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,tekst,Self-assessment ITM Execution Process Survey Tool,Philips Lighting SEC/Page,1,制造业物流管理技巧与评估体系,飞利浦照明集团 胡 恩,2002.,05.17,上 海,物流部门在制造企业的主要职能,安全库存和预测在供应链物流中的作用,衡量物流部门绩效的KPI,第三方物流企业能为你做些什么,供应链管理过程评估工具,制造企业的物流过程,销售,预测,生产,计划,原料,采购,存货,管理,厂内,运输,成品,储存,出厂,运输,订单,处理,客户,服务,采购部门,物流部门,生产部门,物流部门,销售部门,物流部门,制造企业的物流职能,企业经营发展战略,物流战略,物流计划,绩效评估,费用管理,成本控制,订单处理,客户服务,进厂运输,成品,储存,厂内,运输,货物,包装,存货,管理,分销,计划,销售,预测,货物验收,生产计划,原料采购,出厂,运输,地区,储存,业务职能:,管理职能:,微,观,职,能,宏观职能:,物流和商流的关系,商品流通：买卖 备货 运输 储存,区 域 特 征,渠 道 特 征,产 品 特 征,促 销 特 征,信 用 特 征,商流,物流,物流服务于商流;,物流可以与商流分离，独立研究,销售物流内部架构设置,按功能分,B.,按产品类别分,C.,按销售渠道分,物流经理,计划和采购主管,订单处理和客户服务主管,运输和仓储主管,.,物流经理,甲产品物流主管,乙产品物流主管,丙产品物流主管,.,物流经理,批发渠道,工程渠道,OEM,渠道,.,1.全球经济衰退及中国成为全球制造中心对中国物流业的影响,对制造企业,正面影响?负面影响?,对物流企业,正面影响?负面影响?,2.汤姆.彼得斯在出版20周年之际,坦陈它的缺失,并意识到:我们正处在一个非理性的时代,商业世界里没有现成的蓝图和路线.在这个多变的商业环境里,企业的,CEO,CFO,销售总监是如何看待供应链物流的?你作为物流经理在企业中的地位如何?如何面对机遇和挑战?,3.如何理解预测在物流工作中的作用?如何理解预测,与“牛鞭效应”的关系?,4.贵司采用哪些KPI来评价物流工作?如何与物流企业的,物流服务标准相对接.,5.货主企业一般通过招标的方式来选择物流企业,请各,自从货主企业和物流企业的角度阐明其利弊.,6.货主企业与物流企业之间的协议是否应该有标准化格,式?与物流服务标准应建立何种联系?,7.如何衡量物流配送质量和效率,使物流配送成为双赢的,服务?,8.物流企业如何整合你的外部资源,以取得竞争优势?,Inventory and Inventory Management(1),What Is Inventory?,Those stocks or items used to,support production,(raw materials and work-in-process items),supporting activities,(maintenance,repair,and operating suppliers),and,customer service,(finished goods and spare parts),What are Purposes of Inventory?,Anticipation inventory -for future demand;,Fluctuation inventory -commonly called safety stock;,Lot-size inventory -lot-size purchasing or manufacturing;,Transportation inventory -goods on-board shipping;,Hedge inventory -to protect against price fluctuations.,Design,Purchase,Manufacture,Assemble,Ship,Inventory,Manufacture,Assemble,Ship,Manufacture,Inventory,Assemble,Ship,Manufacture,Assemble,Inventory,Ship,Deliverylead time,Deliverylead time,Deliverylead time,Deliverylead time,Engineer-to-Order,Make-to-Order,Assemble-to-Order,Make-to-Stock,Manufacturing Strategies,DemandManagement,Demand,-A needfor aparticularproduct or component.,Sources of Demand:,Customers,Spareparts,Promotions,Intracompany,CharacteristicsofDemand:,Trend,Seasonality,Randomvariation,Cyclicalvariation,|,Year 1,|,Year 2,|,Year 3,|,Forecastingandforecastingtechniques,(1),Principles of Forecasting,forecastsare almostalwayswrong.,Shouldincludeanestimateoferror.,forecastaremoreaccurateforgroups of products.,forecastsare moreaccuratefor nearerperiodoftime.,Forecastingtechniques:,Qualitative(,定性),techniques,-arebased on,intuition(,直觉),andinformedopinion;they thereforetend to,be,subjective(,主观的).,theyareused for business planningandforecasting,fornewproducts,and are used for medium-to long-rangeplanning.,Quantitative(,定量),techniques,-basedonhistorical dataandassume future will repeat past.Theyareoften,in production planning,andthedata are usually readily availablefrom,companyrecords.,|,Inventory and InventoryManagement(1),Inventory Objectives,Inventory must be coordinated tomeet threeconflictingobjectives:,bestcustomer service,low-costplant operation,minimuminventory investment,Forecastingandforecastingtechniques,(2),Forecastingtechniques:,Extrinsic(,外部),techniques,(also called causal,因果,technique),Intrinsic(,内部),techniques,Moving Average(,移动平均),Forecasting,ExponentialSmoothing(,指数平滑),Seasonality(,季节性),Period average sales,Averagesales for all periods,Seasonalindex=,预測,1.对能,够,够预测的,尽,尽量预测,准,准确，不,能,能预测的,必,必须有应,急,急措施；,2.应根,据,据生产规,模,模，产品,的,的特点，,企,企业信息,化,化程度和,所,所需的时,间,间,选取合适,的,的预测方,法,法。不能,偏,偏面强调,预,预测准确,度,度。,库存,1.,在供应链,中,中，选取,合,合适的结,点,点，设置,合,合理的库,存,存；,2.对产,品,品寿命周,期,期短，降,价,价快的产,品,品，必须,设,设置较低,的,的库存，,反之，可,以,以设置较,高,高的库存,。,。,关键,提,提高效,率,率,，,缩短交货,周,周期,大规模定,制,制与延迟,生,生产可以,降,降低成品,的,的预测难,度,度和库存,物流指标,KPI,CLIP,RLIP,ICSL,I,nventoryturns,S,tockbyMAT,库,库存,Inventory Run Rate,P,lanningreliability,计,计划准确,率,率,Component missing rate 零,件,件缺货率,CLIP=numberof orderlines shipped in warehouse,within orderbook lead time/total numberoforder,lines tobeshippedaccording toorder book*100%,CLIP=,在后勤手,册,册供货期,内,内进仓的,订,订单数/,根,根据后勤,手,手册应该,完成的总,订,订单数*100%,RLIP=numberof orderlines shipped in warehouse,within customerrequireddate/totalnumber of order,lines tobeshippedaccording tocustomer requirement,*100%,RLIP=,在客户要,求,求供货期,内,内进仓的,订,订单数/,根,根据客户,要,要求应该,完,完,成的总订,单,单数*100%,theagreedICSL=numberof orderlines shipped ex,warehouse beforedate/totalnumber of orderlines,agreed to beshippedatthatdate*100%,ICSL=,在承诺供,货,货期内出,仓,仓的订单,数,数/根据,承,承诺应该,完,完成的总,订,订,单数*100%,Component missing rate=%ofimmediatelycomponent,availability(measured atthetime when received,customerorder),物料短缺,率,率=客户,订,订单收到,时,时的物料,准,准备率%,Planningreliability=realized salespermonth/sales,planforthis month,made 1month earlier*100%,计划准确,度,度每月实,际,际销售/,提,提前1个,月,月的销售,计,计划*100%,Stock byMAT=total valuestock at months end/total,sales oflast 12months,invalue*100%,库存=月,底,底所有库,存,存资金/,过,过去12,个,个月销售,金,金额*100%,Inventory Run Rate Definition:=%of stockvalue/past 3month sales*4,Inventory T