单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,CHAPTER,4 POST-HECKSHER-OHLIN THEORIES OF TRADE,The product cycle theory,The Linder theory,The intra-industry trade theory,1.The imitation lag hypothesis,Formally introduced in 1961 by Michael V.,Posner(,波斯纳,).,It paves the way for a better known theory the,product cycle theory,.,The same technology is not available in all countries.,There is a delay in the transmission of diffusion(,传播,)of technology from one country to another.,1 The Product Cycle Theory,The imitation lag,:,The period of time between,when the product is,produced,in,Country I,and when it is,produced,in,Country II,.,(,take time to learn,purchase inputs,install equipment,process,the inputs,etc.),The demand lag,:,The period of time between when the product is,sold,in,Country I,and when it is,demanded,by consumers in,Country II,.,DEMAND LAG,(3 months),New foreign goods may not be,regarded as perfect substitutes,for known domestic goods,Time between the production of,good in the inventing country to,the beginning of the production in,the importing country.,NET LAG,(5 months),Time,Figure 4-1 Imitation lag hypothesis,IMITATION LAG,(8 months),2.The product cycle theory,Built upon the imitation lag hypothesis,was,developed in 1966 by Raymond Vernon.,Vernon emphasizes,manufactured goods,and the,theory begins with development of a,new product,in,the USA.,The new product:(a),cater to high income demands,because the USA is a high-income country;and(b)to be,labor-saving and capital-using,in nature.,Life cycle:three stages,1,st,Stage:,New product stage,P,roduced and consumed only in the USA.,Product and the production process in a state of change.,No international trade takes place.,2,nd,Stage:,Maturing product stage,Some general standards,mass production techniques,economies of scale(,contrasts with H-O and Ricardo,).,Overseas demand occurs.,Export,principally to Western Europe.,Investment?if so,exports decline,may even import.,3,rd,Stage:,Standardized product stage,Knowledge of the technology widespread.,Production is moved to where it is cheapest,may shift to developing countries.,Developed countries produce other products.,Trade pattern:the USA imports the product from other developing countries.,The country source of exports shifts throughout the life cycle of the product.(Early on,then displaced,ultimately),Examples:Electronic products,textile and apparel industry,automobile,Factor mobility,economies of scale.,t,0,New,Standardized,Maturing,Time,Home consumption,Home production,Production,consumption,of product,t,1,t,2,Figure 4-2 Pattern of trade for home invention under product cycle theory,0,The country source of exports shifts throughout the life cycle,of the product,PCT and Dynamic Comparative Advantage,EXPORT,IMPORT,JAPAN,CHINA,TV,2 The Linder Theory,The theory of demand preference similarity,i,ncome trade theory.,By the Swedish economist,Staffan Linder,in 1961.,Exclusively demand oriented,dramatic departure from the H-O,model.,Linder acknowledged that in natural resource based industries,trade was indeed determined by relative costs of production and,factor endowments.,However,Linder argued,trade in,manufactured goods,was dictated by the similarity in product demands across countries.,Assumptions of the Linder theory,(1),Consumers tastes,depend on,per capita income level,.,As per capita income rises,the complexity and quality,level of the products demanded by the countrys,residents also rises.,(2)Entrepreneurs are more knowledgeable about their,own domestic market than about foreign markets.,Gain success and market share at home first,then,expand to foreign,market that are similar in their,demands or tastes,(similar per capita income level).,2.Trade comes in the overlapping ranges of product sophistication,Figure 4-3 Overlapping demands in the Linder Model,J,H,G,F,E,D,C,B,A,Income levels,Goods,Country,I,s,income,Country,II,s,income,Country,III,s,income,County,I,s,demand and production,Country,II,s,demand and production,Country,III,s,demand and production,Conclusion:,The most intensive trade,according to Linder,would exist,between countries of the same income or industrialization levels,not dissimilar levels as often concluded from previous theory.,The theory implied a large part of international trade would,consist of the,exchange of similar or slightly differentiated,goods,.,Counter samples:some products are only for exports.,CHRISTMAS TREE(China).,3 Intra-Industry Trade Theory,Exchange of products belonging to the same industry.,Explanation,s,of intra-industry trade,Economies of scale.,S,pecialise in a limited variety of production and thus reap the advantages of increasing returns.,Product differentiation.,Producers try to achieve brand loyalty.,Interaction of factor endowments and product variety,.,Capital-abundant countries export high quality varieties(,品种,).,Labor-abundant countries export,l,ow quality varieties.,Degree of product aggregation(,聚合,),The broader the category,the greater intra-in