Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,Designing annuity products for consumers needs,Presented by,Mike WadsworthPartner,Watson Wyatt,May 2003,Designing annuity products for,Agenda,Options for generating lifetime income,Consumer needs,Investing for life,Managing survival,A new model,AgendaOptions for generating l,I dont want to achieve immortality through my work-I want to achieve it by not dying,Woody Allen,I dont want to achieve immor,People will soon live twice as long as today,and have the potential to live for 1200 years,John Harris,Scientist,Member of UK Human Genetics Commission,as reported Sunday Times,25 June 2000,People will soon live twice a,Funeral firm hit by 29%profit fall,Not enough people are dying in the US,according to Service Corporation International,the worlds largest funeral services company,Times,2 October 1999,Funeral firm hit by 29%profit,Scale of opportunitiesPeople over 65,Source:US Bureau of the Census,Scale of opportunitiesPeople,Annuity versus bond yield,Income taken monthly in advance;interest rate 5%pa,Annuity income broken down into capital element and the balance(ie interest element),Annuity versus bond yieldIncom,Options for retirement income,100%,Pensioner Investment Guarantees,PensionerSurvivalGuarantees,Traditional Annuity,LumpSum,?,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,0%,0%,Options for retirement income1,Traditional annuitiesSome important questions,How much do the guarantees cost?,How valuable are they to customers?,early in retirement/later in retirement?,according to other assets?,How will lifestyles and needs change in retirement?,Will customers change their minds over time?,Traditional annuitiesSome imp,Key issues for designThe Pensioner,Choice(investment),Flexibility(income),Protection(survival),Communication(trade offs),Fail safe,Key issues for designThe Pens,A lifetime asset allocation modelTraditional,Either lump sum,Or annuity,Retire,Retire,Optimum return(equities?),Optimum return(equities?),Cash,Bonds,Bonds,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,A lifetime asset allocation mo,A lifetime asset allocation modelProposed,Optimum return(equities?),Optimum return(equities?),Bonds,Retire,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,A lifetime asset allocation mo,Effect of investment growth onsupportable income-males,Base income supportable calculated at 5%.Income multiple=income supportable assuming extra investment return resulting from equity investment of 1,2,3,4 or 5%pa after charges,divided by base income.Mortality as previously,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Effect of investment growth on,Planning retirement income,The consumer problem is.,How long will I live?,Lifespan is a distribution not an expectation,Planning retirement incomeThe,Distribution of deathsRetirement at age 60,Mortality:PMA92/PFA92 Year of use 2001,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Distribution of deathsRetirem,Distribution of deaths by age now,Age 75 now,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Mortality:PMA92/PFA92 Year of use 2001,Distribution of deaths by age,Distribution of deaths by age now,Age 90 now,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Mortality:PMA92/PFA92 Year of use 2001,Distribution of deaths by age,Standard deviation of deaths,asa proportion of life expectancy,Mortality:PMA92/PFA92 Year of use 2001,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Standard deviation of deaths,Method of calculation,Non-annuitised fund,Income each year defined as:Fund value/annuity factor,Annuity factor calculated at assumed investment return of 0%or 7%pa(excluding expenses),Investment return achieved equal to 7%pa(excluding expenses),Investment return assumed:,(excl expenses),Investment return achieved:7%pa (excl expenses),Mortality:PMA92 Year of use 2001,Initial fund 100,000 Male aged 60 at outset,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Progression of income:,spreading fund over future life expectation,Method of calculationInvestmen,Progression of income-annuitised fund versusnon-annuitised fund,Mortality:PMA92 Year of use 2001,Male aged 60 at outset,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Progression of income-annuit,Supplier view of mortality guarantees,Mortality improving,How fast,1%pa?2%pa?3%pa?,In future?,Scope to review?,Guarantees are(too)expensive?,Supplier view of mortality gua,Mortality drift-,uncertain future improvements,Both charts show expected distribution of deaths for male aged 60 in 1992,allowing for future improvements.PMA92 represents the more recent estimate,Cross-subsidy operates across either distribution,and longevity protection is largely retained even if mortality is reviewed,Drift in anticipated distribution allowing for newer evidence,Watson Wyatt Partners 2000,Mortality drift-uncertain fu,Excess survivors-,PMA92 compared with PMA80,Cost to annuity provider of not reviewing mortality relates to payments made to those survivors who were not expected to live so long-,the red zone,Watson Wyatt Part