Click to edit Master title style,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,*,*,单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,精算学与精算考试（Society of Actuaries）,2019级本科生,2019年12月15日 北京大学,愉快而紧张的精算之夜！,Agenda-提纲,精算学（Science）,职业-精算师（Profession）,精算考试（Certification）,FAQ,精算学,定义,起源,内容,理论+应用,定义,研究未来的不确定的损失对当前经营的财务影响,关键词,未来-时间性,不确定性-随机性,财务-现实性,起源,生命表-,人寿保险,保险业的发展,金融业的发展,内容,数学、统计基础,抽象的数量关系,逻辑分析,建模,经济、金融基础,理论、理念、思想方法,知识,理论+应用,理论,风险模型,客观风险：概率分布,风险偏好：效用,度量的研究,应用,定价,评估,职业-精算师,.精算学和精算考试介绍-2019年12月15日SOA_Brand.wmv,Whats an actuary?-background,The,future,is full of,uncertainty,.Some of the events that can happen are,undesirable,.Risk is the possibility that an undesirable event will occur.,The impact of undesirable events can be both,emotional,and,financial,.Reducing the,likelihood,of these events helps,relieve,emotional pain.But some events,such as death,cannot be totally avoided,.So,reducing their financial impact,is very important.,Whats an actuary?,Actuaries are experts in:,evaluating,the,likelihood,of future events,designing,creative ways,to reduce the likelihood of undesirable events,decreasing,the impact of undesirable events that do occur.,Actuaries are the leading professionals in finding ways to manage risk.,It takes a combination of strong,analytical skills,business knowledge,and understanding of,human behavior,to design and manage programs that control risk.,Actuaries love what they do.Their work is intellectually challenging and they are very well-paid.,Actuaries are key players in the management team of the companies that employ them.,In a fast-changing world,with new risks and the need for ever-more creative ways to tackle them,there is the constant opportunity for personal and professional growth in an actuarial career,and the pleasure of life-long learning.,Most actuaries work in a pleasant environment,alongside other professionals,and enjoy the respect of their peers,Actuaries are the analytical,backbone,of our societys financial security programs.,They are the,brains,behind the financial safeguards we have implemented in our personal lives,so we can go about our daily lives without worrying too much about what the future may hold for us.,These are the safeguards that protect us from lifes catastrophes.,The insight into risk that actuaries have also helps to ensure that our savings are working hard for us,so that everything we love and cherish can grow and flourish.,The work of actuaries benefits all of us.,What is risk and how do actuaries manage risk?,Every person and organization faces risk,and it comes in many forms.,Actuaries contribution to,societys psychological,physical and economic well-being,is immense.,If the risk management programs actuaries develop dont exist,our economic growth would be greatly impacted.,Here are a few examples:,身故风险？,每个人的生命价值对自己而言都是一样的,吴老师,你,如何对待？8年内,储蓄、投资,无所谓,风险评估,吴老师：43岁11.017,学生：21岁2.714,4倍的保费,Some popular techniques include:,Offsetting,one risk with another.,Under certain circumstances,two harmful events might possess the characteristic that when the likelihood of one goes up,the likelihood of the other goes down.,Thus,if we know that when coffee prices go up,soda prices go down,we might want to invest in both coffee and soda stocks,to manage our risk.,Risk is a matter of,perspective,What might be harmful to one party,might be good for another.,For example,when the value of the dollar goes down against the French Franc,that might be bad for an American business,but favorable for a French business.By trading off the consequences of an undesirable event with another party who is affected favorably,both parties are made better off.,Mathematical theory shows that the greatest relief from risk(and consequently,the greatest increase in peace of mind)comes from eliminating the consequences of events that are very unlikely,but result in very big losses.,Thus,families should think about what might happen if the breadwinner dies,their house burns down,or they lose all of their savings.They should then implement solutions that reduce the likelihood of these events,as well as manage their financial impact.,This might involve purchasing a life insurance policy or investing the savings in many different stocks,to reduce the exposure to any one companys fortunes.Generally,a few simple measures taken to address catastrophic risks have a great impact on our well-being.,Focus on,catastrophic,risks,It is better to take on many small risks than face one big risk.,Many small risks generally average out,to give an outcome that is not too extreme in one direction or another.,Results become more predictable.Thus,diversification is an important tool in managing risk.,Diversify,diversify,diversify.,Where do actuaries manage risk?,At this time,the majority of actuaries work in careers that are associated with the insurance industry,though growing numbers work in other fields.,They are heavily involved in insurance because that is societys most powerful answer for