单击此处编辑母版标题样式,单击此处编辑母版文本样式,第二级,第三级,第四级,第五级,*,MIGA的外部挑战和机遇,The political risk investment insurance industry has been growing rapidly at the rate of 20-40 percent a year.However,the industry growth is susceptible to volatility due to the cyclical nature of the insurance business and/or potential occurrence of major claims and losses by insurers.,这种潜在的波动对MIGA来说提出了两类挑战：,发挥反经济周期的催化能力（to play a counter-cyclical catalytic capacity）；,确保有足够的再保险能力的可用性以促进MIGA的未来增长。,MIGA的外部挑战和机遇The political ris,1,业务快速增长中潜在的波动性,政治风险保险行业一直以惊人的速度高速增长，但潜在的波动依然存在。,The global market for political risk insurance for investment currently enjoys a significantly rapid growth of 20-30 percent annually in terms of premium income(Exhibit 1).,The market size is estimated to be as large as US$25-30 billion in annual gross coverage.Premium income by Berne Union members,mostly composed of public insurers including MIGA,has grown at 17 percent per year between 1992 and 1997.,业务快速增长中潜在的波动性政治风险保险行业一直以惊人的速度高,2,Exhibit 1:Growth of Premium Income,Exhibit 1:Growth of Premium I,3,私营保险公司的增长,政治风险保险市场增长的动力之一是私营保险公司日益增长的满足投资者和贷款人保险需求的能力。当今，大约50%-60%的保险市场是由私营保险公司所提供服务的，而MIGA在开发私营保险市场方面发挥了有益的作用。正如汉城公约所规定的，MIGA相信其有必要加强与私营保险公司的合作关系，并且确保其为私营保险公司的业务活动互为补充。,私营保险公司的增长政治风险保险市场增长的动力之一是私营保险,4,近年来，私营保险公司的业务活动有举足轻重的增长，其业务量每年以30-40%的比率增长，占市场份额的50%-60%。(Exhibit 16).,(a)主要的保险机构包括劳埃德船舶保险公司Lloyds of London、美国国际保险集团公司AIG、Zurich US,Chubb&Son,and Sovereign Risk Insurance.,If the current industry growth continues,the premium share of private insurers could,be as large as 60-70 percent by the end of the next five-year period.,近年来，私营保险公司的业务活动有举足轻重的增长，其业务量每年,5,与公营保险机构更广泛的合作机会,A wide range of opportunities are available for MIGA to collaborate with other public agencies.In particular,export credit agencies in Category Two countries and multilateral development banks are increasingly interested in investment insurance.,与公营保险机构更广泛的合作机会A wide range of,6,Diverse Investor Needs and Unmet Needs,Investor needs for political risk insurance are significantly diverse,and this is reflected in their differentiated use of private and public insurers.Some investors have sophisticated risk management needs with a demand for large capacity,while others have relatively simple needs.Sizable unmet needs for political risk insurance still exist among investors,in terms of both the degree of risk mitigation and capacity availability for certain country markets.,Diverse Investor Needs and Unm,7,Linkage to Capital Markets,A linkage between political risk insurance and capital markets as a potential means of transferring risks has emerged in recent years.Despite uncertainties in the pace of development in political risk insurance,this is an area where MIGA believes it can make a pioneering contribution to the entire political risk insurance industry through insurance of bond issuance in the short term and,potentially,portfolio“securitization”in the long term.,Linkage to Capital MarketsA li,8,Diversity of Investment Promotion Intermediaries,The majority of developing countries,including transition economies,have established investment promotion intermediaries.,However,their capabilities,resources,and commitment vary significantly.The investment environmentbusiness,legal and regulatoryalso affects the effectiveness of these intermediaries.MIGAs service will continue to take this diversity into consideration,mindful of MIGAs limited resources.,Diversity of Investment Promot,9,Increasing Importance of the Internet in Investment Promotion,The advent of the World Wide Web has brought about profound changes in the world business environment,particularly in the ways in which organizations market themselves and employ information in their operations.The increased use of Internet-based communication channels in international business has significant implications for organizations involved in attracting foreign investment to their country,region or municipality.,Increasing Importance of the I,10,Unexplored Opportunities,During MIGAs 12 years of operations,the political risk insurance industry has undergone a significant evolution.In this new industry environment,it would be worthwhile for MIGA to examine some unexplored areas of activity.Under MIGAs Convention and Operational Regulations,there are unexplored areas that MIGA can pursue in the long term(possibly in partnership with the private sector)for which positive developmental impact could be expected.Some examples may include insurance for non-commercial risks other than political risk,reinsurance for private insurers,and research and knowledge dissemination.,Unexplored OpportunitiesDuring,11,Exhibit 1:Comments on the Industrys Rapid Growth,The political risk insurance industry is growing today at a very rapid rate:,20-30 percent a year.,“the private sector political risk insurance capacity is growing at a pace of 20-30%a year.”(Project Finance,March 1999),“Premium income quadrupled in the last 9 months(including trade credit insurance).”-insurer,“Between this year and