Pijnne ja harhakoe,Click to edit Master text styles,Second level,Third level,Fourth level,Fifth level,S,ystems,Analysis Laboratory,Helsinki University of Technology,Can We Avoid Biases in Environmental Decision Analysis?,Raimo P.Hmlinen,Helsinki University of Technology,Systems Analysis Laboratory,Structure of the presentation,Background&decision analysis interviews,Goals of the study,Case:Regulation of Lake Pijnne,Splitting bias&swapping of levels,Description of the experiment,Results of the experiment,Conclusions?,Environmental decision analysis,Parliamentary nuclear power decision,(Hmlinen et.al),Decision analysis interviews,(Marttunen&Hmlinen),Spontaneous decision conferencing in nuclear emergency management,(Hmlinen&Sinkko),Cognitive biases,Splitting bias,attribute receives more weight if it is split,origins:subjects give rank information only,(Pyhnen&Hmlinen),Not observable in hierarchical weighting,Decision analysis interviews,Opinions of large groups of people traditionally collected through questionnaires,Decision analysis interviews may provide a more reliable way to collect these opinions,Idea:,one value tree for all=common terminology,emphasis on finding the viewpoints of different stakeholder groups,interactive,computer supported,Research interest,Existence of biases in a real case,Can biases can be avoided through training and proper instructing?,Identify what can go wrong in the Lake Pijnne case,Compare the well trained university students and spontaneous stakeholders responses,The Lake Pijnne case,Regulation started 1964,Main aims were to improve hydroelectricity production and to reduce damages caused by flooding,Environmental values&increase in free time,need for an improved regulation policy,Splitting bias,When an attribute is split,the weight it receives increases,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.1,0.3,0.4,Swapping of levels,Does the order of the levels affect the resulting weights?,Important question in environmental decision analysis:,stakeholder groups may vary regionally,Not studied before,Example of swapping of levels,Lake Pijnne,River Kymijoki,Attribute 3,Attribute 3,Attribute 2,Attribute 1,Attribute 2,Attribute 1,Attribute 3,Attribute 2,Attribute 1,River Kymijoki,Lake Pijnne,River Kymijoki,Lake Pijnne,River Kymijoki,Lake Pijnne,Earlier experiments on biases,Structure of the decision model affects the results,Previous experiments typically:,subjects:university students,problems:artificial,results:taken from group averages,Lake Pijnne-case:a real problem with real stakeholders,Important new features,Realistic case,Decision analysis interviews instead of passive decision support or survey,Interactive computer support(resulting weights shown immediately),Instructions and training before the weighting,Subjects:,University students attending a course on decision analysis(N=30),held during a tutorial session,not mandatory,Habitants of Asikkala(N=40),3 groups of students,1 group of adults(volunteers),3 experts from the Finnish Environment Institute&2 summer residence owners,Experimental setting,Weighting done with the SWING method using a tailored Excel interface,Subjects entered the numbers themselves,two assistants were present to help,Resulting weights shown as bars,Order of value trees partly randomized,Sessions,A short introduction to:,Lake Pijnne case,value trees&weighting,different structures of the value tree,In HUT the avoidance of biases was emphasized more,Duration:60-90 minutes,SWING method,Easy to use,Attribute ranges clearly presented,Idea:,choose the attribute you would first like to move to its best level,assign it 100 points,assign other attributes points less than 100 in respect to the first attribute,Flat-weighting,Muu talous?,Vesivoima,Vesivoima,Muu talous,Ymprist,Talous,Rantojen kytettvyys,Virkistyskalastus,Kalojen lisntyminen,Rantakasvillisuus,Lahtien,umpeenkasvu,Virkistys,Luonto,Tulvat,maatalous ja,teollisuus,Tulvat,loma-asutus,Vesiliikenne,Ammattikalastus,Upper level weights:,Muu talous?,Vesivoima,Vesivoima,Muu talous,Ymprist,Talous,Rantojen kytettvyys,Virkistyskalastus,Kalojen lisntyminen,Rantakasvillisuus,Lahtien,umpeenkasvu,Virkistys,Luonto,Tulvat,maatalous ja,teollisuus,Tulvat,loma-asutus,Vesiliikenne,Ammattikalastus,ENV5-tree:,Luonto,Virkistys,Ymprist,Talous,Rantojen kytettvyys,Virkistyskalastus,Kalojen lisntyminen,Rantakasvillisuus,Lahtien,umpeenkasvu,ENV2-tree:,Luonto,Virkistys,Ymprist,Talous,EC5-tree:,Muu talous?,Vesivoima,Vesivoima,Muu talous,Ymprist,Talous,Tulvat,maatalous ja,teollisuus,Tulvat,loma-asutus,Vesiliikenne,Ammattikalastus,EC2-tree:,Muu talous?,Vesivoima,Muu talous,Talous,Muu talous?,Vesivoima,Muu talous,Ymprist,Talous,Swapping of levels:,Muu talous?,Kymijoki ja muut,Pijnne,Rantakasvillisuus,Tulvavahingot,Kymijoki ja muut,Pijnne,Muu talous?,Rantakasvillisuus,Tulvavahingot,Kymijoki ja muut,Pijnne,Rantakasvillisuus,Tulvavahingot,Flat weights vs.upper level weights,Both in group averages and in results of individuals the total weights for the environment and